BACKGROUND An artificial intelligence (AI) model using chest radiography (CXR) may provide good performance in making prognoses for COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model using CXR based on an AI model and clinical variables to predict clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS This retrospective longitudinal study included patients hospitalized for COVID-19 at multiple COVID-19 medical centers between February 2020 and October 2020. Patients at Boramae Medical Center were randomly classified into training, validation, and internal testing sets (at a ratio of 8:1:1, respectively). An AI model using initial CXR images as input, a logistic regression model using clinical information, and a combined model using the output of the AI model (as CXR score) and clinical information were developed and trained to predict hospital length of stay (LOS) ≤2 weeks, need for oxygen supplementation, and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The models were externally validated in the Korean Imaging Cohort of COVID-19 data set for discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS The AI model using CXR and the logistic regression model using clinical variables were suboptimal to predict hospital LOS ≤2 weeks or the need for oxygen supplementation but performed acceptably in the prediction of ARDS (AI model area under the curve [AUC] 0.782, 95% CI 0.720-0.845; logistic regression model AUC 0.878, 95% CI 0.838-0.919). The combined model performed better in predicting the need for oxygen supplementation (AUC 0.704, 95% CI 0.646-0.762) and ARDS (AUC 0.890, 95% CI 0.853-0.928) compared to the CXR score alone. Both the AI and combined models showed good calibration for predicting ARDS (P=.079 and P=.859).

CONCLUSIONS The combined prediction model, comprising the CXR score and clinical information, was externally validated as having acceptable performance in predicting severe illness and excellent performance in predicting ARDS in patients with COVID-19.