BACKGROUND Diabetes mellitus (DM) duration affects incident atrial fibrillation (AF) risk; the effect of physical activity on mitigating AF risk related to varying DM duration remains unknown. We assessed the effect of physical activity on incident AF in patients with DM with respect to known DM duration.

METHODS Patients with type 2 DM who underwent the Korean National Health Insurance Service health examination in 2015-2016 were grouped by DM duration: new onset and < 5, 5-9, and ≥ 10 years. Physical activity was classified into four levels: 0, < 500, 500-999, 1,000-1,499, and ≥ 1,500 metabolic equivalent task (MET)-min/week, with the primary outcome being new-onset AF.

RESULTS The study enrolled 2,392,486 patients (aged 59.3 ± 12.0 years, 39.8% female) with an average follow-up of 3.9 ± 0.8 years and mean DM duration of 5.3 ± 5.1 years. Greater physical activity was associated with a lower AF risk. Lowering of incident AF risk varied with different amounts of physical activity in relation to known DM duration. Among patients with new-onset DM, DM duration < 5 years and 5-9 years and 1,000-1,499 MET-min/week exhibited the lowest AF risk. Physical activity ≥ 1,500 MET-min/week was associated with the lowest incident AF risk in patients with DM duration ≥ 10 years (by 15%), followed DM duration of 5-9 years (12%) and < 5 years (9%) (p-for-interaction = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS Longer DM duration was associated with a high risk of incident AF, while increased physical activity generally reduced AF risk. Engaging in > 1,500 MET-min/week was associated with the greatest AF risk reduction in patients with longer DM duration, highlighting the potential benefits of higher activity levels for AF prevention.