INTRODUCTION The study aimed to demonstrate the risk factors for fractures and to develop prediction models for major osteoporotic and hip fractures in osteopenic patients using the nationwide cohort study in South Korea.

METHODS The study was a retrospective nationwide study using the national screening program for transitional ages from the National Health Insurance Services database in Korea from 2008 to 2019. Primary outcomes were incident fracture events of major osteoporotic and hip fractures. Major osteoporotic and hip fracture events were defined as diagnostic and procedural codes. Patients were followed until the fragility fractures, death, or 2019, whichever came first.

RESULTS All participants were 66-year-old females, with a mean body mass index was 25.0 ± 3.1 kg/m². During a median follow-up of 10.5 years, 26.9% and 6.7% of participants experienced major osteoporotic and hip fractures. In multivariate analysis, a history of fracture, chronic airway disease, falls, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular diseases were significant risk factors for major osteoporotic (hazard ratio [HR] 2.35 for a history of fracture; 1.17 for chronic airway disease; 1.10 for falls; 1.12 for diabetes mellitus; 1.11 for cerebrovascular disease) and hip fractures (HR 1.75 for a history of fracture; 1.54 for diabetes mellitus; 1.27 for cerebrovascular disease; 1.17 for fall; 1.15 for chronic airway disease). The performances of the prediction models were area under the receiver operating curve of 0.73 and 0.75 for major osteoporotic and hip fractures.

CONCLUSION The study presented prediction models of major osteoporotic and hip fractures for osteopenia patients using simple clinical features.