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PLoS One. 2016;11(1):e0147032.

Multidimensional Geriatric Prognostic Index, Based on a Geriatric Assessment, for Long-Term Survival in Older Adults in Korea.

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제1저자 정희원 · 교신저자 김진원, 김기웅

소속 (5)
  1. Division of Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam, Korea.
  2. Division of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam, Korea.
  3. Department of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea.
  4. Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
  5. Department of Brain and Cognitive Science, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, Korea.

Abstract

The patient´s survival estimate is important for clinical decision-making, especially in frail patients with multimorbidities. We aimed to develop a multidimensional geriatric prognosis index (GPI) for 3- and 5-year mortality in community-dwelling elderly and to validate the GPI in a separate hospital-based population. The GPI was constructed using data for 988 participants in the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging (KLoSHA) and cross-validated with 1109 patients who underwent a geriatric assessment at the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (SNUBH). The GPI, with a total possible score of 8, included age, gender, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, comorbidities, mood, cognitive function, and nutritional status. During the 5-year observation period, 179 KLoSHA participants (18.1%) and 340 SNUBH patients (30.7%) died. The c-indices for 3- and 5-year mortality were 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, in the KLoSHA group and 0.73 and 0.80, respectively, in the SNUBH group. Positive linear trends were observed for GPI scores and both 3- and 5-year mortality in both groups. In conclusions, using common components of a geriatric assessment, the GPI can stratify the risk of 3- and 5-year mortality in Korean elderly people both in the community and hospital.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1 Comparisons of predicted 3- (A) and 5-year (B) mortality by geriatric prognostic index (GPI) score. Dotted lines show the 95% confidence interval. Predicted 3-year mortality (%) = 100 * exp(-4.903 + 0.726 * [GPI]) / (1 + exp(-4.903 + 0.726 * [GPI])); Predicted 5-year mortality (%) = 100 * exp(-4.247 + 0.784 * [GPI]) / (1 + exp(-4.247 + 0.784 * [GPI])) KLoSHA, Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging; SNUBH, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital

그림 출처: PubMed Central 공개 논문 (PMC4714804)

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests:The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

그 밖의 정보
출판 형태
Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
저널
PloS one · eISSN 1932-6203
전자 출판
2016-01-15
MeSH
Activities of Daily Living · Aged · Aged, 80 and over · Comorbidity · Female · Geriatric Assessment* · Humans · Korea · Longitudinal Studies · Male · Mortality* · Prognosis · Prospective Studies · Retrospective Studies
참고문헌
29편