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Sci Rep. 2017;7:42966.

Prediction of Mortality and Postoperative Complications using the Hip-Multidimensional Frailty Score in Elderly Patients with Hip Fracture.

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제1저자 최정연 · 교신저자 김광일

소속 (4)
  1. Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  2. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  3. Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Republic of Korea.
  4. Department of Orthopedic surgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Republic of Korea.

Abstract

High mortality and dependent living after hip fracture pose a significant public health concern. Retrospective study was conducted with 481 hip fracture patients (≥65 years of age) undergoing surgery from March 2009 to May 2014. The Hip-MFS was calculated by Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA). The primary outcome was the 6-month all-cause mortality rate. The secondary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, postoperative complications and prolonged hospital stay, and institutionalization. Thirty-five patients (7.3%) died within 6 months after surgery (median [interquartile range], 2.9 [1.4-3.9] months). The fully adjusted hazard ratio per 1 point increase in Hip-MFS was 1.458 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.210-1.758) for 6-months mortality and odds ratio were 1.239 (95% CI: 1.115-1.377), 1.156 (95% CI: 1.031-1.296) for postoperative complications and prolonged total hospital stay, respectively. High-risk patients (Hip-MFS > 8) showed higher risk of 6-month mortality (hazard ratio: 3.545, 95% CI: 1.466-8.572) than low-risk patients after adjustment. Hip-MFS successfully predict 6-month mortality, postoperative complications and prolonged hospital stay in elderly hip fracture patients after surgery. Hip-MFS more precisely predict 6-month mortality than age or existing tools (P values of comparison of ROC curve: 0.002, 0.004, and 0.044 for the ASA classification, age and NHFS, respectively).

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1 Cumulate 6-month survival rate according to risk stratification based on the Hip-MFS. The Kaplan Meier curve for the cumulative 6-month all-cause survival rates between high risk and low risk Hip-MFS groups. Log-rank test shows significant difference between two groups, statistically.
Figure 2
Figure 2 (A) Rates of 6-month all-cause mortality, complications, institutionalization. (B) Total and postoperative length of hospital stay. Adverse outcomes including 6-month mortality rate, postoperative complication rate, institutionalization rate and length of hospital stay are tend to increase in tandem with the Hip-MFS.
Figure 3
Figure 3 Comparison of area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 6-month all-cause mortality rate between Hip-MFS, age, ASA classification and NHFS. Graph showing highest AUC area in Hip-MFS (0.78) than age (0.58), ASA classification (0.67) and NHFS (0.70) with statistical significance with p value of 0.049, 0.001 and 0.033, respectively.

그림 출처: PubMed Central 공개 논문 (PMC5324046)

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

그 밖의 정보
출판 형태
Journal Article
저널
Scientific reports · eISSN 2045-2322
전자 출판
2017-02-24
MeSH
Aged · Aged, 80 and over · Area Under Curve · Female · Hip Fractures / mortality / pathology / surgery · Humans · Kaplan-Meier Estimate · Length of Stay · Logistic Models · Male · Odds Ratio · Postoperative Complications* · Proportional Hazards Models · ROC Curve · Retrospective Studies · Risk Factors
참고문헌
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